Projected Number of Foreign-born Residents in Local Areas for 2014

This project provides information on the number of foreign-born people from EU and non-EU countries in different local areas of England. This includes data from the 2011 Census, as well as Migration Observatory extrapolations or projections of local-area populations in 2014. The projections are not official statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and only intend to provide an idea of the likely number of foreign-born residents in different local areas of England as of 2014, based on assumptions about migration patterns between 2011 and 2014. The methodology and its limitations are explained in detail below.

This publication arises from research funded by the University of Oxford’s ESRC Impact Acceleration Account.

Definitions

• Accession countries = countries which joined the European Union in 2004 and which had a low per capita income compared to the UK (i.e. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary and Estonia). It also includes countries which joined the European Union in 2007 (i.e. Bulgaria and Romania). Workers from these countries have unrestricted access to the UK labour market since 1 January 2014.
• Census = A census is a count of people and households, and is used to set policies and estimate the resources required to provide services for the population. In the UK it is conducted every 10 years.
• Labour Force Survey = The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a survey of the employment circumstances of the UK population. It is the largest household survey in the UK and provides the official measures of employment and unemployment.
• Old EU countries = those countries that were members of the EU before 2004. It includes: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
• Non-EU countries = those countries which are not members of the European Union.
• NINos = National Insurance Number – Unique identifying numbers given to all people born in the UK and to non-UK nationals over 16 who are planning to work and/or claim benefits in the UK.
• GP registrations = Migrant GP registrations refer to cases where someone who has registered with a GP in England and Wales was previously living overseas. This includes individuals born outside the UK who enter England and Wales for the first time and register with the NHS, or a GP.

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Methodology

Who counts as a migrant?

When analysing the nature of migration, defining who counts as a migrant is of crucial importance. Yet there is no consensus on a single definition of a ‘migrant’. Different datasets – and analyses from these datasets – use a variety of definitions of ‘migrant’, including (1) country of birth, (2) nationality, (3) passports held, (4) length of stay, (5) reason for migration and (6) being subject to immigration controls. For example, people who are foreign-born are not all foreign nationals; likewise, some foreign nationals may have lived in the UK for decades while others reside in the UK for only a year.

Perhaps most importantly, not all foreign-born UK residents are subject to immigration control. Some are the children born abroad of UK national parent(s) -e.g. service personnel. Others are long-term residents who have acquired British citizenship. EEA nationals are also not subject to immigration control, yet are often considered migrants in public debate and in ONS net migration counts. The data analysed in this report are based on country of birth. It is important to note that many of those included in the foreign-born category will have British citizenship.

See the Migration Observatory briefing ‘Who Counts as a Migrant: Definitions and their Consequences‘ for more information.

The importance of the census

The census is the most complete source of information about the UK population. It is particularly useful for obtaining population estimates for small geographical areas and information on the characteristics of such a population, such as their country of birth. Other sources of information on population characteristics in the UK such as the Labour Force Survey have larger margins of error at the local level, because they are based on survey data and rely on a limited number of observations at the local level. The census is based on a count of people and households, with efforts to include everyone and it is supplemented by a survey to detect and estimate those who are missed. The latest UK censuses were conducted during 2011, with 27 March 2011 as the official census day of record.

See the Migration Observatory video interview of Peter Stokes, 2011 Census Statistical Design Manager, for further discussion.

Creating a useful ‘projection’

The limitation of the census is that the information is only available every ten years. This means that the data can get outdated quickly. One way to update these numbers is to complement the information from the census with other sources such as the Labour Force Survey. The Migration Observatory projections have done this by taking five steps:

1. For each region of England (West Midlands, etc.) estimate the number of migrants from Old EU, Accession and Non-EU countries using the LFS 2011.
2. For each region of England (West Midlands, etc.) estimate the number of migrants from Old EU, Accession and Non-EU countries using the LFS 2014.
3. Take the absolute difference between (2) and (1) for each region and migrant group.
4. Calculate a percentage change by dividing (3) by the number of migrants in that region from the 2011 Census.
5. Using local area data from the Census as baseline, assume that the population of Old EU, Accession and Non-EU born individuals increased by the same percentage as in (4).

By way of example, the project for the number of non-EU born migrants in Oxford is calcuated as follows:

1. Non-EU born population of the South East = 637,000 according to 2011 LFS.
2. Non-EU born population of the South East = 676,000 according to 2014 LFS.
3. Growth in Non-EU born in South East = 38,000.
4. Census Non-EU population for South East = 725,000. Percent growth in South East = 38,000/725,000 = 5%
5. 2011 Census for Oxford = 30,600, so 2014 extrapolation for Oxford would be 32,300 (i.e. 5% growth).

Note that these numbers have been rounded for ease of presentation. The Migration Observatory calculations are performed with non-rounded figures.

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Limitations

All exercises of this kind have limitations. Please bear this in mind when using the data:

• The numbers are based on projections, not actual counts of migrants (defined as those born abroad). They should thus be treated as estimates, not facts. Other legitimate methodologies exist that may produce slightly different results.
• The purpose of the exercise is not to produce precise numbers, but to give a general picture of how migrant populations are likely to have changed since 2011 to inform debate ahead of the general election. Small changes or detailed localised effects, in particular, cannot be measured precisely. Percentage growth in regional migration populations may reflect statistical error rather than real changes.
• The figures are not official statistics and should not be used in the same way as official statistics (for example, for justifying funding allocations or planning public services).
• ONS produces its own local area estimates. These are currently only available for 2013 and do include breakdowns by region of origin (e.g. EU, non-EU) and for each individual country in underlying data sheets. ONS figures are official estimates and the 2014 figures should therefore be used when they become available in August 2015.
• The projections are based on a strong assumption that the geographical distribution of new migrants will be the same within each region in 2014 as in 2011. Migration patterns could respond to local events that unexpectedly increase or decrease the attractiveness of the area for migrants (e.g. many new business locating in the area and recruiting migrants). Local events could also affect Old EU, Accession and Non-EU nationals differently.
• The 2011 Census counted a different number of foreign born people than the 2011 LFS. This difference is assumed to be a discrepancy between the LFS and the Census. The projections are based on the assumption that this discrepancy would remain the same if another Census were conducted in 2014, and can thus be added directly to the 2014 LFS number of residents within each region and country of birth broad group.

Projection maps

• Number of residents born in old EU member states
• Number of residents born in new EU member states (accession)
• Number of residents born outside the EU

Projection tables

Table 1 – All foreign-born residents

Region	Foreign-born 2011 Census	Foreign-born 2014 extrapolation	2014-2011 difference	2014-2011 % difference
East	642000	693000	51000	8
East Midlands	448000	493000	45000	10
London	2998000	3187000	189000	6
North East	129000	155000	26000	20
North West	577000	625000	48000	8
South East	1043000	1122000	79000	8
South West	405000	435000	30000	7
West Midlands	630000	678000	48000	8
Yorkshire and the Humber	465000	514000	49000	11
Average across regions			63000	10
England	7337000	7902000	565000	8

Table 2 – EU-born residents

Region	EU-born 2011 Census	EU-born 2014 extrapolation	2014-2011 difference	2014-2011 % difference
East	213000	238,000	25,000	12%
East Midlands	140000	154,000	14,000	10%
London	711000	872,000	161,000	23%
North East	36000	52,000	16,000	44%
North West	144000	185,000	41,000	28%
South East	319000	359,000	40,000	13%
South West	1510000	160,000	9,000	6%
West Midlands	136000	169,000	33,000	24%
Yorkshire and the Humber	131000	158,000	27,000	21%
Average across regions			41000	20%
England	1981000	2,347,000	366,000	18%

Table 3 – Non EU-born residents

Region	Non EU-born 2011 Census	Non EU-born 2014 extrapolation	2014-2011 difference	2014-2011 % difference
East	430000	455000	25000	6
East Midlands	308000	339000	31000	10
London	2287000	2315000	28000	10
North East	93000	104000	11000	12
North West	433000	441000	8000	2
South East	725000	763000	38000	5
South West	254000	274000	20000	8
West Midlands	494000	509000	15000	3
Yorkshire and the Humber	334000	356000	22000	7
Average across regions			22000	6
England	5358000	5556000	198000	4