Net migration: Frequently asked questions

What is net migration?

Net migration is a measure of how long-term international migration adds to the UK population. It is the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating.   

People migrate to the UK for different reasons, including work, study, family and humanitarian reasons. The headline net migration figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) includes them all, so long as they are migrating for at least 12 months. It also includes British people emigrating and returning to the UK (net migration of Brits is negative, so subtracts from the total).    

Why has net migration been high post-Brexit?

Net migration increased sharply post-Brexit, peaking at 764,000 in 2022. It fell by around 10% in 2023 to an estimated 685,000. This remained significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels of roughly 250,000.   

The increase from 2019 to 2023 resulted mostly from non-EU citizens coming on work and study visas (including their partners or children). Asylum seekers made up around 10% of overall net migration that year.   

Much of the increase results from recent immigration policy liberalisations. For example, the government liberalised rules for work visas and encouraged more international students to come to the UK. It also opened new humanitarian visa routes for Ukrainians and Hong Kongers. Immigration policy has interacted with other factors unrelated to immigration. For example, universities started to recruit students overseas more actively as their financial situation deteriorated.  

For more information on the drivers of net migration, see the Migration Observatory briefing, Net migration to the UK.  

Can the government reduce net migration?

Yes. The immigration rules don’t specify precisely what net migration will be, but more restrictive policies will generally reduce net migration, and vice versa. It is not easy to predict how each policy change will affect migration, and the number of migrants in some categories is more readily affected by policy than others. For example, changes to policy on skilled worker and student visas can more easily influence numbers than asylum policy.  

Net migration is expected to fall from 2024 onwards, for two main reasons. First, emigration of former international students is increasing, following the boom in student arrivals in 2021 to 2023. Second, the Conservative government introduced various measures restricting migration between January and April 2024. However, it is unclear how large the decline might be.   

As of mid-2024, it was still too early to understand the impact of the 2024 policy changes on net migration, although early data suggested a substantial fall in some visa categories.   

For more information on the early 2024 policy changes, see the Migration Observatory commentaries, How will new salary thresholds affect UK migration?, and Family fortunes: The UK’s new income requirement for partner visas.  

What is the right level of net migration?

While the current levels of net migration are at a historic high, research evidence cannot tell us what the “right” level of net migration is. The impacts of migration are both economic and social and will differ depending on who is coming to the UK, not just how many. As a result, the level of migration is a political question rather than a technocratic one.  

Higher levels of migration bring both costs and benefits. For example, the available evidence suggests net migration is one of several factors that have contributed to higher house prices in the UK. Higher migration also increases the pace of change in local communities, whereas many people prefer greater stability. Opinion surveys indicate that the majority of the UK public think net migration levels have been too high over the past 10 years. 

On the other hand, individual immigration routes were typically introduced for a reason. In some cases, migration has helped to address challenges in other areas of policy. Admitting more international students brings revenue to universities, for example, while care visas may help reduce the cost of providing care to UK residents who need it in the short run (although they do not address the fundamental recruitment problem in the sector, namely poor pay and conditions). Family migration, meanwhile, benefits British people who marry non-UK citizens. 

A decline in net migration from recent high levels is not, by definition, economically damaging. The Office for Budget Responsibility, for example, estimates that migration levels do not have a big impact on GDP per person. They do find that lower migration has a negative impact on public finances. In practice, however, the economic impacts will also depend on migrants’ characteristics, such as their earnings and whether they have children (as evidence of the fiscal impacts of migration shows).  

For more information on the impacts of net migration, see Chapter 1 of the Migration Advisory Committee’s 2023 Annual Report.  

How does UK net migration compare to other high-income countries?

Over the much longer term, UK net migration levels have been similar to many other high-income countries, although there is a wide range. By 2022, an estimated 14.3% of the UK’s population was foreign-born. This share was higher than Italy and Denmark, similar to the United States and Spain, and smaller than Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. A handful of high-income countries have substantially lower foreign-born populations, notably Korea and Japan.   

According to the OECD, several other high-income countries saw unusually high migration in 2022 – several others saw increases that year, largely due to higher levels of work and humanitarian migration. As a share of its population, the UK saw higher net migration in 2022 than the United States, France and Italy, but lower than Germany and Canada.  

 

Thanks to Mike Jones for comments on a previous draft.