Iranian migration to the UK in 7 charts

by Mihnea Cuibus

Note: This commentary was first published in June 2025 after an earlier outbreak of conflict, and was updated in March 2026.

The US and Israel attacked Iran in early March 2026, restarting a conflict that quickly escalated across the Middle East. This has prompted questions about the potential impact of protracted violence on refugee movements in the region, as well as to the UK.

The situation remains unpredictable, and it is too early to tell how the conflict will affect the number of people fleeing the Middle East. More people could leave if the fighting continues, or if there is another violent crackdown from the regime, or a power struggle among different groups that leads to persistent instability. However, some people who feared the previous government might feel safer in Iran if there is a change in regime. While most Iranians leaving the country would not come as far as Europe, the UK remains a major destination for Iranian asylum seekers, meaning that unrest in Iran may affect asylum trends in the UK. Yet it remains unclear exactly how, or to what extent.

Iran has been the most common country of nationality among asylum applicants and small boat arrivals to the UK in recent years. The UK has also been the most common European destination for Iranian asylum seekers. There were around 114,000 Iranian-born people living in the UK at the time of the 2021/22 Census.

This commentary examines data on Iranian migration to the UK through 7 charts.

Around 63,000 Iranian citizens applied for asylum in the UK in the decade between 2016 and 2025, more than any other nationality. They were followed by citizens of Afghanistan, Albania, and Iraq.

Figure 1

IIran was the third most common country of nationality among asylum seekers in 2025, after Pakistan and Eritrea. The number of asylum applications in the UK increased sharply after 2020, including from Iranians. There were 7,400 applications from Iranian nationals in 2025, less than at their peak in 2021 but considerably more than during the previous decade. However, applications from some other top nationalities saw bigger increases.

Figure 2

Around 58% of all initial decisions on Iranian asylum applications in 2025 were positive, slightly lower than the 64% figure in 2024. That meant Iranians had a higher grant rate than most other top nationalities. Only Eritrean and Sudanese nationals had a higher grant rate.

Figure 3

Iranians also made up the largest group among people detected crossing the English Channel in small boats since 2018, when significant arrivals started being recorded. Around 30,000 Iranians had arrived by small boat by 2025, making up 16% of all arrivals.

Figure 4

Approximately 4,500 Iranians crossed the Channel by small boat in 2025. Iranian small boat arrivals peaked in 2021 at around 8,300, then declined in subsequent years. They were the third most common nationality among small boat arrivals in 2025, after Eritrean and Afghan citizens.

Figure 5

The UK was the top European destination for Iranian asylum seekers in 2025, followed by Germany. Germany and the UK have received many more Iranian asylum applicants than other European states in recent years. Germany received the most in 2023, while the UK was first in 2020-21 and 2024-25.

Figure 6

In 2025, the UK was more likely to grant protection to Iranian asylum seekers than some other top European destinations. At 58%, the initial decision grant rate in the UK was more than twice that in Germany or Sweden, though comparable to France or Finland.

Figure 7