How many migrants in the UK have settlement?

In recent months, there has been increasing discussion of migrant settlement, with opposition parties proposing to change the rules for those who currently hold indefinite leave to remain (ILR). The precise number of non-EU citizens with settlement is not known, but our estimates suggest it was likely to have been between 622,000 and 820,000 at the end of 2024. These estimates do not include the approximately 4 million EU citizens who were living in the UK before January 2021 and hold settled or pre-settled status under the EU Settlement Scheme.

Figures from the 2021 England and Wales Census indicate that around 583,000 people who came to the UK before the end of 2010 had a non-EU passport, most of whom will have acquired settlement (see the next section). Visa data show almost 291,000 non-EU citizens who received their initial visa from 2011 onwards had acquired settlement by the end of 2024. Finally, 54,000 non-EU citizens who received their initial visa between 2005 and 2010 had temporary leave at the end of 2024. Removing this final group from the sum of the first two numbers produces an estimate of 820,000.

A more conservative estimate can be reached by combining the number of people who arrived before the end of 2000 with non-EU passports in 2021 (191,000, according to the Census), with the number who arrived from 2005 and had acquired settlement by the end of 2024 (430,000, from visa data). This results in a total of 621,000 people, although this estimate excludes non-EU citizens who first entered the UK between 2001 and 2004.

Table 1

Group	Year of arrival / initial visa	Year	People
Non-EU passport holders	Until 2010	2021	583,000
Non-EU citizens with settlement in December 2024	Since 2011	2024	291,000
Non-EU citizens with temporary leave in December 2024	2005-2010	2024	-54,000
Upper estimate			820,000
Non-EU passport holders	Until 2000	2021	191,000
Non-EU citizens with settlement in December 2024	Since 2005	2024	430,000
Lower estimate			621,000

Source: Non-EU passport holders: 2021 Census for England and Wales; and non-EU citizens with settlement or temporary leave in December 2024: Home Office Migrant Journey, Table MJ_D01.

Both data sources have limitations. A (likely small) number of non-EU passport holders who arrived before 2010 will have had a temporary immigration status at the end of 2024, while others may have emigrated between 2021 and 2024. In addition, some individuals who either had temporary leave or settlement in 2021 will have since become British citizens. The Census figures do not include migrants living in Scotland or Northern Ireland.

In the visa data, some non-EU citizens with settlement will have left the UK. The visa figures also exclude around 1,000 EU citizens who had settlement at the end of 2024.