Changes to settlement: what do they mean?

by Mihnea Cuibus

Note: this analysis was updated in October 2025.

In 2025, the government said it will introduce changes to make it harder to obtain permanent residence in the UK, also called settlement or Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR). Currently, migrants typically become eligible for settlement after living in the UK for five years on a qualifying visa. Under the new rules, this standard period will double to ten years for some migrants, although it is not yet clear who will be affected. This analysis examines the potential impacts of the policy. Among the key points:

• Roughly half of around 4 million people on temporary visas at the end of 2024 had a path to settlement, though not all will take it up—others will leave without applying for settlement. It is not yet clear which visas will be affected by changes in policy and whether the policy will cover people already in the UK.
• A longer path to settlement presents a trade-off between the financial benefits of higher immigration fees and lower welfare spending for the government in the short run, and the negative impact on the integration of migrants in the longer term.
• New settlement criteria requiring applicants to be working would primarily affect refugees and family members, who tend to have lower employment rates. Requirements not to have claimed benefits are most likely to affect refugees, who have access to benefits before receiving ILR—unlike most other temporary visa holders.

Who will be affected by the changes?

The White Paper suggests that the standard route to settlement will change from five years to ten. However, it includes various exceptions. A five-year route to settlement will be maintained for family members of British citizens (although not necessarily family of settled people who have not become citizens). In addition, a reduced qualifying period for settlement will be offered to some migrants, based on “points-based contributions to the UK economy and society”. In September 2025, the Home Secretary said that it would consider whether people were working, not using the benefits system, and volunteering for local causes. However, limited detail is available on how the policy will work. The government said it will consult on the changes later in 2025. It remains unclear when they will enter into effect.

A key question is whether the changes will apply to people already in the UK, or only those arriving in the country after implementation. The Home Secretary said this will be answered as part of the public consultation. In the past, changes to visa conditions for people already on a route to settlement have often been limited to newly arriving migrants, after a successful legal challenge against the retrospective application of new rules in 2006. However, media reports suggest the government may want to apply the changes to at least some migrants who are already in the UK. Either way, people who arrived in the UK before the end of free movement and hold status under the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) will be unaffected by the ILR changes, since their right to settlement after five years is enshrined in the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement.

The visa categories that could be affected are those that currently offer a five-year route to settlement. Work visas such as those granted under the Skilled Worker route are most likely to be covered by the new rules. It is currently unclear if the new rules will extend to other categories, such as family visas where the sponsor is not a UK citizen, people given protection under the asylum system, or those on the BNO route for Hong Kongers.

Several major visa categories do not offer a route to settlement, and there is no indication this will change under the new system. These visas include study visas and graduate visas, visas granted under the Ukraine schemes, short-term work visas and other work routes such as intra-company transfers. People holding one of these visas will only be affected by the changes if they remain in the UK and switch to a different visa, which can lead to settlement.

How many people will be affected?

A lack of policy details and limited data make it impossible to produce a precise estimate of how many people will be affected by the changes to settlement rules. Here, we discuss the main visa routes that could be affected, and their size at the end of 2024. However, this will vary over time – the number of temporary visa holders in 2024 was unusually high and may decline due to lower immigration since then. The extent of any exemptions for work, family, and humanitarian migrants will determine how many people are affected by the new settlement rules in the future.

At the end of 2024, around 4 million people held a valid temporary visa and had first arrived in the UK less than ten years before. The majority—around 3.6 million—arrived under the post-Brexit immigration system. After ten years of legal residence, people typically become eligible for settlement under “long residence” rules regardless of their visa.

Roughly half the people on temporary visas at the end of 2024 – around 53% or 2.1 million – had a path to settlement, though it is not yet clear which visas will be affected by changes in policy. It is plausible that a large share could face shorter qualifying periods due to their contributions to the economy or society, however.

• Around 1.4 million people held a worker visa, although it is plausible that a large share would face shorter routes to settlement because of their economic contributions, given that the route exists for such reasons. (Note that this figure includes some people on visas not eligible for settlement, such as intra-company transfers, which made up around 10% of new worker visas granted in 2024). Most other worker visas currently allow people to apply for settlement after five years. In practice, many worker visa holders may be eligible for shorter qualifying periods based on their economic contributions. For example, this might include people working for the NHS, or high earners who make significant fiscal contributions – the median earnings for Skilled Worker main applicant visa holders outside of health and care was £56,600 in the 2023/24 financial year.
• Roughly 38,000 people held an investor, business development, or Global Talent visa. No clear information is available, though this group may be offered shorter qualifying periods based on contributions to society and the economy.
• Approximately 205,000 people held refugee permission or a similar type of humanitarian status. The extent of any exemptions or reductions in the qualifying period for this group is uncertain.
• Around 189,000 people had BNO visas, and currently have to wait five years for settlement. It is unclear to what extent the new rules will apply to BNOs.
• Around 300,000 people held family visas. According to the White Paper, a five-year qualifying period for settlement will be maintained for family members of British citizens, but not necessarily for those of non-UK nationals with ILR. A 2025 survey of partner visa holders found that 82% of sponsors were British citizens. Note that some family members are already on a ten-year path to settlement.

Another 1.7 million people – 42% of all those on temporary visas – were on visas with no route to settlement. These visas are not directly affected by the proposed changes, although some people on them may plan on switching into visa categories that currently offer a five-year route to settlement. They include migrants on study visas (961,000), graduate visas (264,000), Ukraine visas (286,000), as well as temporary workers and other ineligible work visa holders (145,000).

Table 1

What will the impact of a longer path to settlement be?

A ten-year route to settlement would make the UK more restrictive than most other high-income countries, though comparable to Switzerland and Japan.

There is limited evidence on how the path to ILR affects migration decisions, though a recent study found that the length of time for acquiring settlement at destination did not significantly affect migration decisions.

One important effect of longer qualifying periods for settlement would be that some migrants pay much more in immigration fees, although the White Paper does not cite this as the objective. For example, a migrant with no dependants who comes to the UK on a 3-year Skilled Worker visa currently pays a total of £9,900 in fees before obtaining settlement. Under the new system, this would increase to £16,900 – mostly because the Immigration Health Surcharge has to be paid for ten years instead of five, and assuming the visa is extended three times. This brings more revenue to the Home Office and other parts of government, such as the NHS. Correspondingly, it means more costs for migrants themselves—or for employers, in cases where employers cover the fees for workers they sponsor. While many can afford the fees, lower-income migrants, such as family members, sometimes find it harder to pay the fees without incurring debt, according to surveys conducted by charities – although comprehensive evidence on the impacts of fees is lacking.

ILR policies also affect access to welfare benefits. Most temporary visa holders are ineligible for benefits, although refugees are an exception. A longer path to settlement would mean some migrants are ineligible for benefits for longer. While many work visa holders have relatively high incomes (median earnings of Skilled Worker visa holders in 2023-4 financial year were an estimated £56,600), lower-earning work visa holders such as nurses and care workers will often qualify for in-work benefits if they have children. People on visas as partners of British citizens also have low average earnings, estimated at £21,200 in 2023-4, for people in their fourth year after arrival—making them more likely to qualify for benefits on receiving ILR. A longer path to ILR is thus expected to reduce the benefits bill in the short run, at the cost of increasing poverty risks among family migrants on temporary visas.

A longer path to settlement may also have some impacts in the workforce. A minority of migrants hold employer-sponsored work visas. Before reaching ILR, those workers must remain employed with a licensed employer sponsor. A longer path to ILR thus ties them to their employer for longer. If a longer path to settlement applies to migrants who are already in the country on skilled work visas, the impact of this may be greatest in the care sector. Many migrant workers in the care sector are overqualified, creating a greater risk that they move out of the sector when they have the freedom to do so.

Extending the ILR period may hinder integration in the longer term. In particular, there is evidence that longer periods of time without the rights that come with permanent status and citizenship may somewhat hinder social and economic integration. Migrants with permanent residence have more bargaining power than those on work visas who are tied to their employers, which can lead to better pay and conditions. Studies of refugees find that having a permanent or more secure immigration status was associated with better integration into the labour market. In addition, permanent status may provide migrants with the resources and incentives to invest more heavily in learning the language and developing social ties. A longer path to permanent status also delays access to citizenship, and research has repeatedly found that naturalisation can improve economic outcomes and social integration.

As a result, longer qualifying periods for settlement may come with a trade-off between the short-run financial benefits and the negative effects on the integration and well-being of migrants.

What will the impact of more restrictive settlement criteria be?

The effects of more restrictive settlement criteria should be analysed separately from the impacts of a longer path to ILR.

In general, if settlement criteria are significantly more restrictive than entry visa criteria, more migrants will fail to meet them. Depending on the proposed rules, this may result in more emigration in the long term if people who do not qualify for settlement are required to leave the country, or more people remaining on temporary visas if they are not required to leave.

It is not yet clear whether the settlement criteria the government has referenced (i.e. not claiming welfare, being in work, and volunteering) will all be mandatory, or whether applicants could qualify by meeting just some of them.

Employment requirements would have most impact on migrants in visa categories where employment rates tend to be lower, most notably refugees and partners of British citizens and settled residents. In theory, it is possible that an employment requirement would create a greater incentive for people in these groups to enter work, at least initially. However, is greater incentive to work may be offset by the negative impacts of remaining longer in a less secure immigration status, as discussed earlier.

A requirement not to have claimed benefits would primarily affect refugees, since most other migrants on temporary visas do not have access to benefits. It is difficult to predict to what extent refugees might forego benefits they qualify for in order to be eligible for citizenship.