Changes to settlement: what do they mean?

by Mihnea Cuibus

Note: this analysis was originally published in May 2025 and was updated in October 2025 and February 2026.

In November 2025, the government announced changes which would raise eligibility thresholds for permanent residence in the UK, also called settlement or Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), doubling the standard waiting period from five to ten years. This commentary examines the proposed policy and its potential impact.

• Roughly 2.2 million people with temporary visas at the end of 2024 were on a path to settlement, though some will leave without applying to stay permanently.
• All settlement applicants would face more stringent minimum employment and language requirements under the proposed policies. Data from 2024 suggests that the total number of potential settlement applicants who are not working and thus would not meet a mandatory employment requirement is in the hundreds of thousands.
• Waits for settlement would vary by occupation, earnings and other characteristics. Care workers and people with visas for middle-skilled jobs would face a 15-year baseline wait — at least 325,000 visas were granted in these jobs since 2021. A majority of the remaining work visa main applicants earn enough to remain on a five-year route. However, most of their dependants do not, and would thus have a ten-year baseline wait.
• Roughly 430,000 to 520,000 children held temporary visas with a path to settlement at the end of 2024. Details of the rules for people who arrive as children remained unclear as of early 2026.
• Longer paths to settlement for lower-earning workers present a trade-off between positive impacts for public finances and a potential negative impact on integration in the longer term. However, other effects are hard to predict, such as the impacts of mandatory employment requirements and whether skilled workers will be deterred from coming to the UK.

What are the proposed changes?

The Home Office projects that 1.6m people would receive ILR between 2026 and 2030 under the current rules. The government says its proposed changes seek to avoid an unusually large number of people being granted settlement in the coming years, following record levels of migration in the early 2020s. Settlement currently grants access to public benefits, with the Home Secretary raising concerns about the potential fiscal impact of a spike in settlement grants. Any changes would affect migrants who are already living in the UK.

First, additional minimum requirements would apply to all migrants seeking settlement, with exceptions yet to be determined. Under the current system, applicants must pass the Life in the UK test, have no criminal record, and demonstrate knowledge of English to B1 level (an intermediate level, similar to a GCSE pass, whereby the user is independent and capable of practical everyday communication but not yet fully fluent). The new system would increase the language requirement to B2 (an upper-intermediate level, similar to an A-level, whereby the user can understand complex texts and converse fluently). It would also require migrants to have made national insurance contributions for at least three years – in effect, to have been employed with earnings of at least £12,570 a year for this period. This is equivalent to a part-time job (19 hours per week) at the 2026-7 minimum wage.

Second, the standard waiting period before a migrant becomes eligible for settlement would increase from five to ten years, with important exceptions. Family members of British citizens would continue to be eligible for settlement after five years, as would holders of BN(O) visas under the UK’s humanitarian route for Hong Kongers. Migrants with Innovator Founder or Global Talent visas would continue to be able to obtain settlement after three years. EU citizens and others holding status under the EU Settlement Scheme would also be unaffected by any changes (including those on minimum requirements). Other groups would face longer baseline waiting periods. Migrants on the Skilled Worker route in low or middle-skilled occupations (below RQF level 6) would have to wait fifteen years before applying for settlement. Refugees would face a baseline wait of twenty years, though shorter waits would be available for those who switch onto a separate work and study protection route, details of which remain unclear. The “long residence” rules, which allow people with ten years’ continuous legal residence in (almost) any visa category, are set to be abolished.

From these baseline periods, migrants would face longer or shorter waits depending on their characteristics, mostly related to their contribution to the UK. The following reductions in waiting periods would be available (only the largest reduction would apply):

• 1 year less for migrants with higher English skills at C1 level (an advanced level, similar to that of a degree, whereby the user can function effectively in academic and professional environments)
• 5 years less for migrants with taxable income of at least £50,270 a year
• 7 years less for migrants with taxable income of at least £125,140 a year
• 5 years less for migrants in specified public service occupations (such as those working in education or the NHS, though a list is to be confirmed)
• 3 to 5 years less for migrants working in their community, such as through volunteering (details remain unclear)

The following factors would result in longer waiting periods would also apply (only the largest):

• 5 years longer if the applicant has received public funds for less than 12 months
• 10 years longer if the applicant has received public funds for more than 12 months
• Up to 20 years longer for people who entered the UK illegally, first arrived on a visitor visa, or overstayed a visa for more than 6 months (up to a maximum total of 30 years)

Most migrants would face longer or equal waiting periods than at present, with the exception of very high earners, who will become eligible for settlement after three years instead of five. Most of the proposed measures are subject to a public consultation that will remain open until 12 February 2026. The government is also considering further exemptions from the new rules for vulnerable groups, as well as migrants who arrive in the UK as children.

Several major visa categories – including study visas, Graduate visas, and shorter-term work visas such as intra-company transfers – currently do not count towards the five-year route to settlement, and there is no indication this would change under the new system. However, most would currently qualify for the ten-year long residence route, with the exception of seasonal workers and people who came under the Ukraine schemes.

How many people will be affected?

A precise estimate of how many people would be affected by the proposed changes is not possible. Here, we discuss the main visa categories that would be affected, and their size at the end of 2024. However, numbers will have changed over time – the number of temporary visa holders in 2024 was unusually high and may decline due to lower immigration and grants of ILR since then.

Around 4.2 million people held a valid temporary visa at the end of 2024. Most of them — around 3.6 million — arrived starting in 2021, under the post-Brexit immigration system.

Table 1

Around 2.2 million people – 53% of all those on temporary visas at the end of 2024 – held temporary visas that currently have a 5-year path to settlement. All would be affected by more mandatory minimum requirements on language and employment, unless exceptions are introduced. In practice, the mandatory work requirement is likely to affect the largest number of people, with effects concentrated among groups which tend to have lower employment rates, such as:

• Dependants of people holding worker visas (645,000, of which 328,000 adults). HMRC data from 2023/24 show that around half of adult Skilled Worker dependants were not working, and a third of dependants on Health & Care visas.
• Family visa holders (352,000, of which 318,000 adults). The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) found in 2025 that around a third of adults on family visas were not working by their fifth year in the UK. Many more are likely to earn below £12,570 or not have the required period of continued employment.
• Refugees and other holders of humanitarian protection (230,000, of which 165,000 adults). A Home Office analysis showed that around 45% of refugees granted protection or resettled between 2015 and 2023 were not working by their fifth year in the UK.
• BN(O)s from Hong Kong (189,000, of which 145,000 adults). Survey data from 2025 indicated that 30% of adult BN(O)s were not in employment.

Hundreds of thousands of migrants would therefore currently not be eligible for settlement under the proposed mandatory employment rule.

Increased baseline path to ILR

Not all migrants would wait longer for settlement, under the proposals. Many with work and family visas would be unaffected, while very high earners will get access to settlement earlier. The categories facing longer waiting times are as follows (all figures are for 2024):

• Work visa holders in low and middle-skilled occupations, most notably migrants in social care, would face a 15-year wait. Over 250,000 out-of-country visas were granted for care or middle-skilled jobs between 2021 and September 2025 (Table 2). Another 71,000 switched into these jobs directly from study visas from 2021 to 2024. Data for people switching from other visas, such as the Graduate route, are not published, so the total number of visas granted in these categories will exceed 325,000. Some will have returned home in the meantime, however.
• Worker visa main applicants (756,000), depending on their earnings. Most long-term work visa holders are currently eligible for settlement after five years, though the figure includes some people on ineligible visas, such as intra-company transfers, which made up 10% of all new worker visas granted in 2024. Most main applicants are likely to remain on a five-year route because they have salaries above £50,270 or are in graduate-level public service roles such as nursing. Main applicants with a Skilled Worker visa (excluding Health & Care) had a median income of £56,600 in 2023/24. Migrants earning more than £125,140 would become eligible for settlement after three years.
• Dependants of work visa holders (645,000). Partners and children would no longer be on the same path to settlement as the main applicant. On average, partners earn less than main applicants and well under the £50,000 required for a five-year settlement route. Median earnings were £30,200 among employed Skilled Worker dependants in 2023/4, and £22,100 for Health & Care dependants. Most would thus be expected to face a ten-year route.
• Family visa holders (352,000). Those who are family members of British citizens will continue to be eligible for settlement after 5 years, while those sponsored by a non-citizen with settlement would appear to face a 10-year baseline wait. A 2025 survey of partner visa holders found that 82% of sponsors were British citizens. Note that some family members are already on a 10-year path to settlement under the current rules.
• Refugees and people with humanitarian protection (230,000). Refugees granted asylum in the UK would face a baseline waiting period of 20 years before becoming eligible for settlement. People who arrived in the UK as part of official government resettlement programmes would face a baseline wait of 10 years for settlement.

Table 2

Children

Currently, children are eligible for ILR at the same time as their parents, and both parents must have settlement for the child to qualify. If this would continue to be the case, children with two parents on different paths to settlement would become eligible on the longer of the two pathways. It remains an open question whether and to what extent there will be special provisions for children under the new system. The consultation provides little detail on how children would be treated, including on whether a child who becomes an adult and enters the workforce while their parent is still on a temporary visa would have an independent route to settlement.

Available data cannot tell us what share of children would have longer paths to settlement under the proposed rules. However, hundreds of thousands of children were on temporary visas with a path to settlement at the end of 2024, and may hence be affected.

Table 3

What would the impact of the changes be?

Several other European countries impose minimum employment requirements for migrants seeking to obtain permanent residence, including Denmark, Sweden, and Italy. In practice, this means some non-working migrants have no route to permanent status. For those who do have a path to permanent status, a ten-year standard route to settlement for most migrants would make the UK more restrictive than most other high-income countries, though comparable to Switzerland and Japan. Longer waiting periods of 15 to 30 years would be unusual among high-income countries.

Impact on migration decisions

There is limited evidence on how more stringent requirements and a longer path to ILR may affect immigration and emigration. In theory, some people may be deterred from coming to the UK in the first place. A recent survey-based study found that the length of time for acquiring settlement at destination did not significantly affect prospective migrants’ decisions about whether to migrate, but the evidence is limited. High-earning migrants, who are most likely to have alternative destinations open to them, are most likely to qualify for a shorter path to settlement and thus not be affected as much by the rule changes. In theory, the new rules might deter high-earning migrants concerned about their non-working spouse’s route to permanent status. The new rules might also lead some migrants already in the UK to leave the country, particularly those in sectors like social care which face waits of 15 years before settlement. The size of any effect is impossible to predict.

Financial impact

Longer periods of time spent on temporary visas would mean that some migrants will pay more in immigration fees and would be ineligible for welfare benefits for longer. This would have an impact on migrants’ financial position as well as on public finances.

For example, a migrant with no dependants who comes to the UK on a three-year Skilled Worker visa currently pays a total of around £9,900 in fees before obtaining settlement in five years, not including the employer’s Immigration Skills Charge. If the same person instead waited for ten years, fees would increase to a total of £16,900, mostly because the Immigration Health Surcharge is paid for every year of residence. This would bring fiscal benefits, including to the Home Office the NHS. Correspondingly, it would mean higher costs for migrants or their employers. Many would be able to afford the fees, but lower-income migrants such as family members sometimes incur debt, according to surveys conducted by charities, though comprehensive evidence on the impact of fees is lacking. Note that some temporary migrants are already given fee waivers and exemptions from the ban on receiving benefits.

Third, ILR policies affect access to welfare benefits (and some other entitlements, like access to home fee status in universities). Currently, migrants with ILR have the same rights to access benefits as British citizens. However, the government is also consulting on a proposal to prevent migrants with ILR from accessing benefits, limiting eligibility to British nationals only. Most temporary visa holders are ineligible for benefits, with refugees an exception. More stringent minimum requirements and a longer path to settlement would make migrants ineligible for benefits for longer. Other migrants who remain eligible for benefits may avoid accessing them in order to avoid being penalised and having to wait 5 or 10 more years before settlement.

The fiscal impact of these changes is hard to predict. While many work visa holders have relatively high incomes, those with lower incomes such as care workers will often qualify for in-work benefits if they have children, as will some holders of family visas. Care workers who arrived before the 2024 ban on bringing partners and children are among the groups most likely be eligible for considerable in-work benefits when they receive ILR. As a result, long periods in temporary status are likely to bring a positive fiscal effect in the short run, while increasing risks of low income among some migrants on temporary visas. However, any changes to the total benefits bill are limited by the fact that the largest fiscal costs associated with low-earning migrants tend to come later in life. For example, the MAC estimated that preventing the 2022-3 cohort of partners on family visas from accessing benefits for an additional 2 years might save the Treasury around £42m, compared to a net lifetime cost of £5.6bn for this group.

Impact in the workforce

Changes to settlement rules may affect the workforce. A minority of migrants hold work visas sponsored by employers. Before reaching ILR, those workers must remain employed with a licensed sponsor. A longer path to ILR thus ties them to their employer for longer. For employers offering competitive pay and conditions, this means higher immigration fees (which employers sometimes pay on workers’ behalf). Employers offering poor pay and conditions are more likely to benefit because workers find it harder to leave the job, and this benefit to employers comes at the cost of higher risks of exploitation and migrants’ reduced ability to move to higher-paying jobs. The impact of this change may be greatest in the social care sector, especially since many migrants in the sector are overqualified, making it more likely that they would move out of the sector when they can. The government may have a policy objective to keep care workers in the sector, though it is less clear whether it has an interest in keeping workers in other middle-skilled jobs unrelated to the Industrial Strategy (such as butchers and chefs).

Impact on integration

Raising the threshold for migrants to obtain settlement is likely to affect integration over the long term, though the evidence is mixed. In theory, more stringent requirements for settlement may push migrants enter work or learn more English. Such incentives seem to work in some contexts – for example, a reform making permanent residence more accessible in Sweden led to more unemployment and lower incomes among those affected. However, other research found no connection between labour market integration and the type of status held by migrants.

On the other hand, some studies suggest that longer periods of time without the rights that come with permanent status and citizenship can hinder social and economic integration. Migrants with permanent residence have more bargaining power than those on work visas who are tied to their employers, which can lead to better pay and conditions. Some studies of refugees found that having a permanent or more secure immigration status was associated with better labour market outcomes. In Denmark, one study suggests that imposing more stringent employment and language criteria for settlement led to a decrease rather than an increase in employment. Permanent residence may in theory provide migrants with resources and incentives to invest more in studying or acquiring language skills, though this is also disputed .

A longer path to permanent status also delays access to citizenship. Studies looking at the impacts of becoming a citizen are more numerous and have more consistently found positive effects on integration. Studies from the US , the Netherlands , France , and Germany found that naturalisation improved wages or earnings, for example. An EU comparative study found that holding citizenship improved employment rates and occupational status for male migrants from developing countries, while another found positive effects for refugees specifically. A Swiss study found that having citizenship (and acquiring it faster) improved social integration, judged by various factors such as local club membership and reading local newspapers. That said, not every study comes to the same conclusion, with a handful finding no effect or effects only for some groups of migrants or certain measures of integration. Nonetheless, a 2023 review of the literature found that, on balance, citizenship appeared to have sizeable returns in the labour market.

A longer and more difficult path to settlement may thus bring a trade-off between short-run benefits to public finances and longer-term effects on the integration of migrants. The size of both effects is uncertain and very difficult to predict based on the available evidence, however.