Global International Migrant Stock: Scotland in International Comparison

This briefing compares the stock of international migrants in Scotland to the UK and other countries, as well as considering how these comparisons would change in an independent Scotland.

In 2010, the most recent year that allows direct comparison of Scotland to other world regions, migrants made up a lower share of Scotland’s population (6.3%) than they did in Europe as a whole (9.8%)

2010 is the most recent year in which reliable (non-extrapolated) stock data for both Scotland and the rest of the world are available. Figure 1 displays the share of Scotland’s population which was non UK-born in that year compared to other world regions. It shows that the Scottish share of international migrants, at 6.3% in 2010, was lower than 2010 levels in the EU (9.8%), North America (14.8%), and Oceania (20%). Even when using the extrapolated UN figures for 2013, the estimated proportion of migrants in the EU (remaining at 9.8%) was larger than the 2012 proportion in Scotland (7.2%). See the briefing Migrants in Scotland: An Overview for more information about the shares of migrants in Scotland.

Figure 1

Return to top

People born in Poland, Germany, and the USA make up a greater share of the foreign-born in Scotland compared to the UK as a whole

Figure 2 displays the main non UK groups present in Scotland in 2012, compared to the UK foreign-born population as a whole in 2013. These two years are used because they are drawn from the most recent data available. In 2012, 14.9% of foreign-born people in Scotland were born in Poland, compared to 8.5% in the UK as a whole in 2013. Meanwhile, other groups that made up a larger share of foreign-born in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK include people born in Germany (+2.1%), USA (+2.5%), South Africa (+0.7%), Canada (+1.7%), France (+0.7%), and Nigeria (+0.3%). However, 9.7% of foreign-born people in the UK as a whole were from India, compared to 6.4% of the foreign-born in Scotland. People born in Pakistan and Ireland also made up a larger share of the UK foreign-born in 2013 compared to Scotland in 2012.

Note that for these purposes, only people born outside the UK are considered international migrants to either Scotland or the rest of Britain. Of course, if Scotland were to become independent, both the size and composition of its population of international migrants would change considerably – at least under the frequently used definition of international migrants as all people living in a country other than the one in which they were born. In an independence scenario, people born in England, Wales or Northern Ireland but living in Scotland would become ‘foreign-born’. The reverse would hold for the rest of Britain, as Scottish-born residents of the rest of Britain would also become foreign-born and therefore migrants by this definition.

Figure 2

Return to top

In terms of the absolute number of international migrants living in a country, Scotland would currently stand at 77th position out of the 232 countries that reported data to the UN

Data from the Annual Population Survey (APS) shows that in 2012 an estimated 375,000 people in Scotland were non-UK born, while 285,000 were non-UK nationals (for more information, see our briefing Migrants in Scotland: An Overview. To put these figures in context, the entire stock of international migrants throughout the world was about 231 million in 2013. The Migration Observatory briefing Global International Migrant Stock: The UK in International Comparison contains more detail about the characteristics of these stocks. Therefore, Scotland currently ranks 77th out of 232 countries included in the UN data in terms of the absolute number of international migrants. This is measured by comparing its 2012 non UK-born population with the most recent available 2013 data from the UN. Table 1 displays a selection of countries ranked by their stock of international migrants in 2013. Note that to avoid double-counting migrants living in Scotland, the UK figure has been adjusted by removing the estimated non UK-born population of Scotland. Without this adjustment the UK would still rank 6th although it would be virtually even with the United Arab Emirates, ranked 5th.

Table 1 – Selected rankings of countries by total migrant stock

Rank	Country	2013 Total stock
1	United States of America	45785090
2	Russian Federation	11048064
3	Germany	9845244
4	Saudi Arabia	9060433
5	United Arab Emirates	7826981
6	UK (without Scotland)	7449131
7	France	7439086
8	Canada	7284069
9	Australia	6468640
10	Spain	6466605
...	…	…
70	Congo	431470
71	Costa Rica	419572
72	Dominican Republic	402506
73	Chile	398251
74	Gabon	394953
75	Republic of Moldova	391508
76	Guinea	378464
77	Scotland (2012 Data)	375000
78	Zimbabwe	360992
79	Ecuador	359315
80	Ghana	358829

It is important to emphasise that these rankings are generated using the most recent data available about stocks in both Scotland and the world, which is why two different years’ data are cited. However, this result does not differ greatly when using the data from 2010 – the most recent year that appears in both UNPD and APS datasets. In that year, when the non UK-born population in Scotland was estimated at 326,000 people, Scotland ranked 80th in the world in terms of international migrant stock. For more information on the datasets, see evidence gaps and limitations section below.

Return to top

In terms of the share of international migrants living in a country, Scotland ranks 68th among the 154 countries that have at least 50,000 international migrants

Moving from absolute numbers to the proportion of international migrants in a country reveals that Scotland is ranked near the middle of countries having at least 50,000 migrants. The cut-off of 50,000 effectively excludes countries with very small populations that would skew the shares data by giving the impression of high levels of migration. Table 2 shows a selection of countries ranked by the percentage of their total population that is made up of international migrants.  The UK figure, ranked at 44th, has been adjusted to avoid double-counting Scottish migrant stock and population in the rankings. This was done by subtracting both the estimated migrant stock and total population of Scotland from the UK figures published by the UN. Total population of Scotland at mid-year 2012, estimated to be 5,313,600, was retrieved from the National Records of Scotland.

Table 2 – Selected rankings of countries by migrant stock as share of population

Rank	Country	Migrant share of population (%)
1	United Arab Emirates	83.7
2	Qatar	73.8
3	Kuwait	60.2
4	United States Virgin Islands	59.3
5	China, Macao	58.8
6	Bahrain	54.7
7	Channel Islands	51
8	Brunei Darussalam	49.3
9	Guam	48.9
10	Luxembourg	43.3
...	…	…
42	Spain	13.8
43	Norway	13.8
44	UK (without Scotland)	12.9
45	Libya	12.2
46	Côte d'Ivoire	12
...	…	…
66	Russian Federation	7.7
67	Botswana	7.2
68	Scotland (2012 data)	7.2
69	Bhutan	6.7
70	Macedonia	6.6

Again, however, Tables 1 and 2 treat only non-UK born people as international migrants in Scotland. The independence scenario, in which those born in the rest of the UK would become ‘foreign-born’ residents of Scotland, is considered below.

Return to top

The share of international migrants in Scotland would increase to 17.6% after including people born in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This would increase Scotland’s global ranking from 68th to 31st among the 154 countries with at least 50,000 migrants

In a hypothetically independent Scotland, this picture would change: residents of Scotland born within the UK but outside of Scotland would now be classified as international migrants. According to 2012 APS data, 10.4% of the Scottish population was made up of people born in England (9.3%), Wales (0.7%), and Northern Ireland (0.4%). When added to the 2012 share of non-British born stock in Scotland (7.2%), this results in a total percentage of 17.6%. As seen in Table 3, this would put Scotland at 31st in terms of total migrant stock as a share of its population, among the 153 countries with at least 50,000 migrants. This would represent a rise in its global shares ranking from 68th.

Table 3 – Selected rankings of countries by migrant stock as share of population (Scotland with England, Wales and Northern Ireland)

Rank	Country	2013 stock as share of population (%)
30	Lebanon	17.6
31	Scotland (2012 data plus Eng/W/NI)	17.6
32	Estonia	16.3
33	Bahamas	16.3
34	Ireland	15.9
35	Sweden	15.9
36	Austria	15.7
37	Réunion	15.6
38	Belize	15.3
39	Martinique	15
40	United States of America	14.3

Return to top

Evidence gaps and limitations

Since being launched in 2004, the APS combines results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with additional survey interview ‘boosts’ in England, Scotland, and Wales to increase the sample size. The LFS brings some limitations for estimating the dynamics of migrants in the UK. First, it does not measure the scale of irregular migration. Second, it does not provide information on asylum seekers. Third, the LFS excludes those who do not live in households, such as those in hotels, caravan parks and other communal establishments. Therefore, the LFS likely underestimates the number of recent migrants in the UK. However, unlike other data sources such as the Census the LFS provides annual data on the number and characteristics of migrants in Scotland.

Meanwhile, although the UNPD dataset allows for international comparisons, the extent to which this can be done across countries is less than perfect. Several factors make comparisons problematic: differences in data collection practices, changing borders and political unions, irregular migration, and differences in rates of foreign-born naturalisation. Furthermore, estimates of stocks also capture the cumulative effects of migration that may have occurred a considerable time ago, rather than the current patterns of migration. While recognising these limitations, this dataset remains the most useful and most widely used in international comparisons of migrant stocks.

For the purposes of this briefing, it is also important to recognise that the APS data is updated on an annual basis whereas the UNPD dataset is updated every five years, with revisions based on extrapolation and estimation occurring between these updates. Therefore, for this briefing, the most recent available data from both sources were used for comparison. However, where possible, the 2010 data which was common to both datasets was also used.

For Figure 1, the European Union excludes Cyprus, because migrant stock data were not available from the UN. Subtracting Cyprus, the EU in Figure 1 data include the following: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

References

• United Nations. Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, 2013.

Related material

• Migration Observatory briefing – Migrants in Scotland: An Overview
• Migration Observatory briefing – Global International Migrant Stock: The UK in International Comparison