New data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today make yet another upwards revision to previously published migration statistics, showing net migration peaking at more than 900,000 in year ending June 2023, before falling following the Conservative government’s early 2024 visa restrictions, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said today.
Immigration, emigration and net migration
The ONS data suggest that net migration peaked at 906,000 in the year ending June 2023, and decreased just under 20% to 728,000 in the year ending June 2024. These numbers are higher than expected because ONS has made the latest in a series of upwards revisions of its previous stats (see notes for editors below). For example, it now believes that net migration in calendar year 2022 was 872,000. This compares to a first published estimate for calendar year 2022 of 606,000 published in May 2023. The revisions result from ONS receiving more complete travel data, and adding tens of thousands of Ukrainians who had been missed in the data due to an error (43,000 people in the year ending June 2023).
The recent fall was driven primarily by a decrease in immigration following visa restrictions under the previous Conservative government–including a ban on most family members of students and care workers, as well as higher salary thresholds for private-sector jobs. Note that the full impact of the policy changes is not yet visible in the data. The most recent year of data—year ending June 2024—covers the first few months of the restrictions but also the second half of 2023 when visa grants remained unusually high. Home Office visa data suggest a relatively sharp downward trend in grants, with a decline of 32% in total visas granted between the summer (July-September) of 2023 and 2024 (excluding visit/transit visas).
Emigration also rose, driven by more international students leaving the UK. This follows the sharp increase in students arriving under the post-Brexit immigration system. However, international students have become more likely to remain in the UK after their studies, and are still departing at lower rates than in the past. In the year ending June 2024, the UK granted 198,000 Graduate visas to former international students. An increased share of students have also been switching into long-term work visas that offer a path to permanent status.
Impacts of early 2024 visa restrictions
Home Office data also published today show visa grants for the summer (July-September) of 2024, after the Conservative government’s visa restrictions had been fully implemented.
Health and care visa grants to main applicants were down 85% from a Q3 2023 peak of just over 45,000, reaching around 6,600 in Q3 2024. This follows a Home Office crackdown on sponsorship in the care sector due to concerns about exploitation of migrant workers starting in late 2023. The ban on family members of care workers may also have played a role, although most of the decrease preceded that policy change.
Following significant increases in salary thresholds for private-sector jobs, Skilled Worker visa grants outside of health and care declined by 32% between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, from 17,800 to 12,100. The largest decrease was seen in visa grants to middle-skilled roles in the food and hospitality sector, such as butchers and chefs, which fell 64% in the same period. However, there were also decreases in professional jobs, such as engineers (down 37%) and IT (down 30%).
Student visas fell following the ban on most students’ family members in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to the same period a year earlier. This was primarily driven by fewer family members themselves (down 84% in Q1-3 inclusive). The number of student main applicants fell by 16% or 64,000 over the same periods. The declines are likely to be spread unevenly across the higher education sector. The 31% decline in combined student and dependant numbers was driven primarily by applicants from Nigeria and India, down 74% and 42% respectively.
Dr. Ben Brindle, a researcher at the at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said:
“We are yet to see the full impact of the visa restrictions in the data, although this initial data from the summer suggest that migration levels will not necessarily fall below pre-Brexit levels once the policy changes have bedded in. Of all the policy restrictions introduced over the past year, the restrictions on sponsorship in the care sector are likely to have the largest impact on net migration levels in the medium term, because of the significant number of people involved and the fact that most were expected to remain in the UK permanently.
“The increase in salary thresholds for private sector workers appears to have affected a wide range of skilled occupations, not just the lowest paid ones such as butchers and chefs. IT and engineering worker numbers are also down, and this likely results in large part from the increase in occupation-specific salary requirements”.
The asylum system
Despite efforts introduced by the Labour government to increase the speed of asylum processing, the asylum backlog rose slightly, from 95,300 in June to 97,200 at the end of September 2024. However, any reduction in the asylum backlog must also be viewed alongside trends in the appeals backlog, which has risen substantially, reaching 58,000 in April-June 2024.
The grant rate for asylum seekers has fallen over the past two years. In the year ending September 2024, 52% of asylum seekers were granted asylum or another legal status, down from 75% in the year ending September 2023. This decline follows an increase in the standard of proof for asylum seekers following the Nationality and Borders Act (NABA) of 2022. The impact has taken some time to materialize because of the asylum backlog.
Ends
Notes for editors
- Revisions to the migration statistics have substantially changed the official picture on net migration over the past two years. For example, net migration for calendar year 2022 was originally estimated at 606,000 in the ONS May 2023 publication. It was revised up to 745,000 in November 2023, and up to 764,000 in May 2024. Today’s release makes a third revision that the figure for 2022 at 873,000.
- Revisions have taken place for several reasons. Early estimates make assumptions about which migrants will remain in the UK long term, and these are later replaced with complete travel data. In 2022 and 2023, migration patterns changed with a higher share of visa holders staying in the UK long term, compared to what ONS had expected based on previous data.
- ONS has also made various methodological changes. For example, ONS now has access to more detailed data on people who switch visas in-country (e.g. from a student to work visa). Today’s release also includes a larger number of Ukrainians in 2022 and 2023, who had been missed in earlier releases.
