New data released today by the Home Office show that in 2024 the number of visas granted to people moving to the UK on work, study, family or other visas fell by 460,000, driven mainly by a sharp fall in the number of health and care work visas and student dependant visas.
Visas issued for health and care workers and their families fell by more than 237,000 or 68% (from 348,000 in 2023 to 111,000 in 2024). Student dependent numbers fell from 143,000 in 2023 to 22,000 in 2024 – a fall of around 121,000 or 85%. These declines follow unusually high numbers of visa grants seen in 2022 and 2023. In late 2023 and early 2024, the previous government introduced various restrictions on health and care and student dependants.
Overall, the year 2024 saw 951,000 grants of residence visas (i.e. excluding visit-type visas). This was down by 33%, from 1,409,000 in 2023 and a similar level in 2022.
Dr Ben Brindle, researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said: “The past few years have seen a ‘boom and bust’ in some visa categories, particularly students’ family members and health and care visas. The large declines in visa grants have been possible primarily because the number of visas previously being issued in the post-Brexit immigration system was so high. Despite the declines, overall visa grants to non-EU citizens remain well above pre-Brexit levels.”
Residence visa grants to non-EU citizens were still 46% above the number in 2019. At that time, EU citizens were not included in visa figures because they had free movement rights due to the UK’s EU membership.
Following an increase in salary thresholds, between July and December 2024 grants of skilled worker visas (excluding health and care) fell by 39% (or 13,600) compared with the same period in 2023. The main salary threshold increased to £38,700 in April 2024. The food and hospitality sector, which includes butchers and chefs, saw the largest decline in visa grants in the second half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023, falling from 5,000 to 1,330 (-73%).
Dr Brindle added: “The number of skilled workers in private sector jobs has declined for some jobs more than others. Some employers are simply paying workers more, while others are stepping back from the visa system—particularly lower-paying middle-skilled jobs such as butchers and chefs.”
Family visas for the partners of British citizens or permanent residents in the UK decreased by 8% in the second half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, after the income requirement increased from £18,600 to £29,000.
Labour has struggled to reduce the asylum backlog in its first six months in office with levels having risen by 5,000 between June and December 2024, to around 91,000. At the same time, the appeals backlog has been increasing and, as of September 2024, 34,000 appeal cases were pending at the immigration tribunal. The number of people in contingency accommodation—which includes hotels increased since the party took office from 32,000 at the end of June 2024 to 41,000 at the end of December.
Mihnea Cuibus, Researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said: “The government has so far struggled to reduce the number of asylum applicants in supported accommodation. The combination of more refusals, a long appeals backlog in the courts, and a moderate increase in asylum applications towards the end of the year have all contributed. As a result, the Labour Party has not so far made much progress towards its goal of ending the use of hotels for asylum seekers.”
Asylum applications ticked up slightly in the last quarter of 2024, by 4% from 30,000 to 31,000 applications. Applications rose by 18% between 2023 and 2024. The grant rate for asylum seekers at initial decision fell below 50% in 2024: 47% of asylum seekers were granted asylum or another legal status, down from 67% in 2023 and a peak of 76% in 2022.
Small boat arrivals were up from 29,400 in 2023 to 36,800 in 2024. This resulted mainly from increases in people from Syria, Vietnam, Sudan and Yemen. Afghans continued to be the largest group of people crossing in small boats, with 5,900 arrivals, followed by Syria and Iran.
One of Labour’s main commitments on migration has been to increase the number of returns and deportations. The number of people removed from the UK increased from 14,700 in the second half of 2023 to 17,400 in the second half of 2024. Around a third of this number were people who returned independently without any government involvement. The total number of returns in 2024, at around 33,400, was the highest level since 2016, though still significantly below the peak of 46,500 in 2013. If we look only at voluntary or enforced returns in which the government is directly involved, the figure was 20,000, which is the highest level since 2017.
Cuibus added: “After a decade of decline, the number of people being removed from the UK was already on an upward trajectory before the election. Labour has dedicated more resources to immigration enforcement and this is likely to have had some impact on the numbers, though other factors will play a role too. For example, there has been an increase in the number of people refused visa extensions in the last couple of years.”
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