A raft of measures designed to reduce migration to the UK and make it harder for migrants to stay permanently largely completes the process of rolling back the post-Brexit immigration liberalisations introduced under the previous government, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said today.
The long-awaited Immigration White Paper contains a range of measures, mostly aimed at restricting migration, with a few symbolic liberalisations.
Work visas
The main long-term work visa, known as the Skilled Worker Route, will now largely be reserved for graduate jobs. Salary thresholds will rise (to an unspecified level) and partners accompanying workers on the route will have to demonstrate basic English language skills. Middle-skilled jobs in industries like construction will only qualify for temporary visas under restricted conditions, with no right to bring dependants. The care worker visa will close to new applicants coming from overseas, although people will still be able to switch into the care route from within the UK until 2028 if they have a visa with the right to work. The post-study graduate visa will be reduced from 2 years to 18 months.
Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: “These new measures, combined with the ones the previous government introduced early last year, roll back most of the liberalisations that the post-Brexit immigration policy brought in. Of the flagship post-Brexit policies, only the post-study Graduate visa and Global Talent routes remain.
“The occupation most affected by the changes is likely to be the care sector. The care sector has faced serious recruiting difficulties, largely due to poor pay and conditions in return for difficult and demanding work. However, the care visa has also been incredibly difficult for the government to monitor, with widespread evidence of exploitation and abuse. While the restriction may make it harder for employers to recruit in the longer term, it will probably help reduce exploitation and provide more options for care workers who are already in the UK trying to escape from exploitative employers.”
The number of visas issued to care workers had already fallen dramatically from 2023 to 2024 following a crackdown on sponsors in late 2023. However, care remains the largest occupation using skilled workers visas—14% of the total by the fourth quarter of 2024, with just under 2,000 care and senior care workers in the last three months of the year alone.
The number of visas in middle-skilled jobs due to be restricted had also fallen following recent in the salary thresholds under the previous government. For example, visa grants in food preparation trades (which includes butchers and chefs) fell by 73% from the second half of 2023 to the second half of 2024. Visas in construction and building trades had fallen 64%. However, middle-skilled jobs that would become ineligible for long-term visas still account for roughly 1,000 visa grants per month, plus any family members.
Language requirements
The White Paper proposes raising language requirements across the whole immigration system, including for settlement. For the first time, adult dependants of work visa holders would face language requirements. More than half of skilled worker visas over the past couple of years have gone to dependants, which means that requiring them to pass English tests could in theory have a meaningful impact. However, there is no data on how many of them would have passed a language test so it is hard to say how big this impact would be.
Nuni Jorgensen, Researcher at the Migration Observatory, said: “There is evidence that language skills are extremely important to getting by in the UK, so requiring higher language skills at entry may mean that people receiving visas fare better in the UK—especially partners of visa holders who arrive without a job already lined up. It will make life more difficult for employers, if it prevents them from recruiting their preferred candidates because the partner does not speak English. Whether there will be a significant impact on overall migration levels remains highly uncertain.”
Settlement
The white paper proposes increasing the duration to settlement to 10 years as the standard amount for workers, with family members still able to get settlement after 5 years. Other proposals allowing earlier settlement for people making a greater social or economic contribution are also set out, with details to be consulted on. A ten-year route to settlement would make the UK more restrictive than most other high-income countries but comparable to Switzerland and Japan.
Mihnea Cuibus, Researcher at the Migration Observatory, said: “The newly proposed policies would mean more migrants have temporary status. Making the route to permanent status longer is unlikely to significantly affect migration levels. One of the main impacts would be to bring in more visa-fee revenue to the Home Office, because people on temporary visas pay ongoing fees to be here. For migrants themselves, this means higher costs and longer periods without the rights that come with permanent status and citizenship.”
Other changes
Restrictions on international students are less significant than on other categories, with a reduction in the length of the post-study work visa from 2 years to 18 months. Universities may have to start paying a levy when they recruit international students, although the details are yet to be laid out.
Among several other areas where the government has signalled further changes in future are family migration, with proposed legislation that will attempt to restrict the number of people being granted status under human rights laws despite not meeting the main immigration rules. The White Paper also signals plans to try to restrict people on visas from applying for asylum, although most of the details remain to be seen.
The paper suggests some minor changes to what the government calls “growth routes”, such as expanding the “high potential individual route” for people graduating from top global universities.
Net migration
Home Office estimates that 98,000 fewer visas would be issued as a result of the new restrictions, which is equivalent to around 10% of visa grants in 2024. While these estimates are plausible, it is always difficult to predict precisely how many people will be affected by each measure and how people will respond to policy changes.
Georgina Sturge, data consultant at the Migration Observatory, said: “Net migration is already forecasted to fall due to the restrictions introduced by the previous government following unusually high migration under the post-Brexit immigration system. These measures look likely to bring net migration down further if they work as intended, although a lot will depend on precisely how the measures are implemented”.
Ends
